Posts

Showing posts from 2012

2012: The Hottest Year For Manhattan Real Estate Since '07

Image
A: Ok the year is not over yet, but at this point I can confidently say that this market is quickly shaping up to be the hottest market I have experienced in Manhattan real estate since the peak back in 2007. This is a combination of sustained new contract activity, declining inventory trends, and "price action". Out of these 3 micro market forces, only "price action" is measured at a lag as we wait for price discovery on deals that were signed months ago. Therefore, all the activity from April through July should start to reveal itself in the upcoming quarterly reports. Expect these reports to show positive price trends..

Lets get right into the data and put the pieces together on where Manhattan is right now and where we came from. I am a big fan of keeping it simple, so lets look at what Manhattan is producing on a monthly basis over the last 3 years; both new contracts signed and new supply coming to market. 

MANHATTAN MONTHLY NEW DEAL VOLUME SINCE 2009(contract …

How to buy pre-construction smart

Image
Buying pre-construction has its perks. You can be part of a unique and special project, like a brand new condo in the West Village, or have first dibs on the penthouse in the latest hot building.  More practically speaking, you can also, in many cases, take advantage of some discounted early phase pricing (more on that below). But how do you buy an apartment without touching, seeing, or walking through it? How will you know what the views from the 31st floor will really be like? How do you buy pre-construction smart? Here's some advice from the experts: 1. Let the offering plan guide you That document needs to be considered the Bible for the purchasers. The offering plan includes everything from the appliances that have been chosen to the opinion of a tax lawyer on what taxes will be after the city asseses the finished building. It will also have a "special risks" section, which will include things like whether or not the developer has the right to rent any unsold units.…

Finally, It Is Time to Buy a House

Image
Warren Buffettfamously once said: "Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful." And if you're not instinctively scared of the housing market, then global warming, saturated fat, running with scissors and the bogeyman probably aren't keeping you awake at night, either. The fact that everyone is scared to dabble in—much less commit to—housing makes it a close-to-perfect investment based on Mr. Buffett's principle. But buying real estate is a good long-term investment for many more reasons, some of which have only become apparent in recent weeks. The most striking: Housing prices rose sharply from April to May. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index rose 2.2% in 20 of the nation's big cities. Prices shot up more than 3% in Chicago, Atlanta, San Francisco and Minneapolis. Even Detroit's housing market scored a gain, inching up by 0.4%. Nationally, the increase was the first in seven months. More importantly, the increase matched other data …

Manhattan vacancy rate climbs, but so do rents

Manhattan apartment seekers had more rental units to choose from in July, a new report says. The vacancy rate for rentals in the borough reached 1.20 percent in July, an increase compared to the previous July, when the rate was 0.86 percent, according to a monthly report released today. This is the second consecutive month we have seen an increase in rental inventory, and represents the highest level of available apartments since this past March, when the vacancy rate was 1.25 percent. In June, it was 1.01 percent, the report says. This increase may be the result of New Yorkers entering the sales market or price-sensitive newcomers postponing their moves to the city. It seems like many college students, who in the past may have opted to move to Manhattan early to spend summer in the city, are now finding that prospect cost-prohibitive. While still relatively low, this uptick in vacancy during the peak summer season may be a sign that rents have approached their tipping point. July re…

Rental Market in NYC: Rents climb in Second Quarter

Image
Average Manhattan studio surpasses $2,500 a month July  2012 

The cost of a Manhattan rental apartment climbed to a median price of $3,125 per month in the second quarter of 2012, a new report shows. At the same time, more units came on the market, but the increased inventory isn’t necessarily good news for renters. In the second quarter of 2012, rental listings rose 27.9 percent, to 5,660 units from 4,427 units, compared to the same period in 2011. “The rise in inventory is a phenomenon created by people vacating their units when presented with a significant rent increase,” said Jonathan Miller, president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel. “Technically it’s happening, but the property becomes available for a short period of time and is snapped up.” In June, the vacancy rate increased to 1.01 percent, according to a similar report from another Real Estate firm in NYC, released today. That’s still tiny, but significantly higher than it was last June, when vacant units made up just 0.…

Another day, another $95M listing

Image
August 2012  50 Central Park South and the duplex penthouse For the second time this week a condominium bordering Central Park, a duplex penthouse on the 34th and 35th floors of 50 Central Park South, has been put on the market with a $95 million price tag.  The 5,078-square-foot unit has three bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms and is highlighted by a 42-foot-long ballroom that looks on to the park. The unit also has a 689-square-foot terrace. It is owned by an Argentinian ballroom dancer who paid $19.95 million for the the apartment on the top floors of the Ritz-Carlton in 2006 and spent an additional $7 million on renovations. Weston would not disclose his exact identity. The unit is one of three on the market for at least $95 million. On Wednesday, steel magnate Leroy Schecter listed his 15 Central Park West condo for the same price, and two weeks ago developer Steven Klar listed his CitySpire penthouse for $100 million. Today’s listing is the smallest of the three, but the building is no st…

Alchemy closes on upper portion of Woolworth

Image
August  2012  From left: Alchemy Properties president Kenneth Horn, the Woolworth Building, the building's lobby and the building's namesake Frank Woolworth A $68 million deal to transforming the top 30 floors of the iconic Woolworth Building into 40 luxury condominiums has been finalized and the units are expected to be ready for occupancy by 2015, according to the New York Times. An investment group led by Alchemy Properties closed July 31 on the upper portion of the building from a partnership of the Witkoff Group and Cammeby’s International, which will continue to lease the bottom 28 floors as offices. Witkoff and Cammeby’s, led by Steve Witkoff and Ruby Schron, respectively, purchased the entire building for $137.5 million in 1998. The 57-story building’s new apartments will be some of the highest in the city at approximately 700 feet above the ground, with one five-level, 8,000-square-foot penthouse, occupying the copper cupola reaching 792 feet . The top-floor penthouse…

Manhattan Real Estate Sales Second Quarter 2012 -- Prepared by Miller Samuel

Image
Report reveals stable housing prices, strong sales for entry level and luxury market, continuation of low inventory and steady new development sales. New York, NY (PRWEB) July 03, 2012 The Douglas Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 2Q 2012 reveals that Manhattan housing market remained stable during the second quarter, with a surge in entry-level sales and the luxury market at a high level of pricing. The listing inventory fell 13.5% from 2011 and co-ops saw more activity than condominiums this quarter, largely due to a decline in supply. Luxury market prices continued to fluctuate each quarter, but at a high level, and the new development market share held steady at 16.4%. “It was a busy spring season for the Manhattan real estate market,” said Dottie Herman, President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “We saw stable prices and a significant increase in sales as first time homebuyers responded to record-low mortgage rates and rising rental prices. The higher end of the market conti…

Population Growth in the NYC Metropolitan Region

According to the Census, New York City’s population reached 8,175,133 in 2010, a modest increase of 2.1% since 2000. However, some neighborhoods had much a higher percent increase in population.   In Manhattan, the community districts with the highest percent increases are: Community District Neighborhoods # of additional residents % Increase 2000-2010 1 Battery Park City, Tribeca 26,558 +77.2% 4 Chelsea, Clinton 15,766 +18.0% 5 Midtown   7,645 +17.4% 10 Central Harlem   8,614 + 8.0%  Some Brooklyn neighborhoods also saw strong growth: Community District Neighborhoods # of additional residents % Increase 2000-2010 1 Williamsburg, Greenpoint 12,745 +7.9% 3 Bedford Stuyvesant   9,118 +6.3% 4 Bushwick   8,276 +7.9% 5 East NY, Starrett City   9,698 +5.6% 7 Sunset Park, Windsor Terr.   6,167 +5.1% 11 Bensonhurst, Bath Beach   9,852 +5.7%  High population growth was also recorded for districts in the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island: Borough District Neighborhoods # of additional residents % Increase 2000-2010 Bronx 1 Melros…

First Quarter Report of Residential Sales in the City

Image
Sales of homes and apartments in the first quarter showed little change from year-earlier levels. A spurt in buying in the Bronx and Queens was nearly totally offset by a lackluster sales in Manhattan and Brooklyn and a big drop in Staten Island, according to a new report.
During the first quarter, there were 9,035 sales transactions in the five boroughs, compared with 8,999 in the first three months of 2011, according to the report compiled by the Real Estate Board of New York, or REBNY, a powerful industry trade group.
Borough by borough, however, the picture varied widely. In Queens, the number of sales jumped 13% to 2,919, while the Bronx saw sales numbers surge 14% to 549. Meanwhile, the number of transactions barely budged in Manhattan, inching up by a mere 10 deals to 2,635, while in Brooklyn sales rose 4% to a total of 2,375. Only Staten Island, recorded a drop, a steep 44% fall to 557 sales. The report tracks closed sales of condos, co-ops and one- to three-family homes.
“Fo…

Sales up, prices down in Manhattan housing market

The number of Manhattan sales dropped 45 percent to 7,430 between 2007 and 2009, according to The Real Deal’s 2010 Data Book (see the entire residential housing market history section from the Data Book below), but rose 8.4 percent between fourth-quarter 2008 and the last three months of 2009. The median sales price in the fourth quarter of 2009 was down 10 percent to $850,000 in the prior-year quarter. The average sales price in fourth-quarter 2009 was also down, by 12.7 percent to $1.3 million year-over-year. Meanwhile, there was a steep decline in inventory in the fourth quarter in the borough, attributed to pent-up demand, low interest rates and lower prices, according to the data book. “We saw fewer price cuts, and those price cuts were not as deep,” said Sofia Song, vice president of research at Streeteasy.  Source: The Real Deal Web site. TRD

Market for starter apartments heats up

Image
Manhattan’s lower-end home-seekers are recognizing that market conditions favor a purchase and it’s beginning to show up in the data. Citing Real Estate firms data, Crain’s reported that sales of starter apartments, defined as studios and one-bedrooms that attract price-sensitive buyers grew to account for 56.2 percent of all closed transactions in the first quarter of this year, up from a 10-year average 50.9 percent. And that growth will likely continue into the next quarter as contract signings for entry-level apartments in the first quarter rose 19 percent for studios and 11.6 percent for one-bedrooms, according to year-over-year data from Streeteasy.com. Crain’s said a confluence of factors is helping the market. Rising Manhattan rents are making purchases relatively affordable, prospective buyers are becoming confident that the market has already bottomed out and positive economic indicators are leaving buyers more comfortable with their finances. At the still-under-constructio…

REBNY: NYC New Residential Housing Permits 2011

According the US Census, permits were issued for 8,936 new residential units in NYC in 2011. This total represents a 29.6% increase from the prior year’s total.
Although this total represents a strong increase from the previous year, it is a 73% decline from the peak in 2008 when permits were issued for 33,170 units. The 2011 total compares closely with the 1997 total when NYC saw permits issued for 8,987 new residential units.
Manhattan was issued permits for 2,535 units which was almost 3 times the 2010 total of 872 units.
Queens continued its trend of recovery by issuing permits for 3,182 new residential units. The Queens 2011 total marks a 35% increase from the 2010 total (2,358) and a 115% increase from the 2009 total (1,474).
Despite the year over year increases in the other 4 boroughs, in 2011 Brooklyn was issued permits for 1,522 new residential units, a 27% decline from 2010’s total of 2,093 units.

30 Dolphins Saved In Under Four Minutes On The Beach At Arraial Do Cabo, Brazil =So Amazing!!! So rare!!

Image
30 DOLPHINS SAVED IN UNDER FOUR MINUTES ON THE BEACH AT ARRAIAL DO CABO, BRAZIL



On the morning of March 5, about 30 dolphins stranded themselves on the beach at Arraial do Cabo, Brazil. Less than four minutes later, all were saved.








Rio de Janeiro and its annual Carnival, in a stunning tilt-shift time-lapse clip from Jarbas Agnelli and Keith Loutit

Image

Housing Inventory Ends Year Down 22%

There were fewer homes listed for sale at the end of 2011 than in any of the previous four years, a positive sign for the housing sector. But appearances can be deceiving, and it remains to be seen whether the drop is the beginning of a real recovery or if inventory is being held down by sellers waiting for prices to pick up and banks moving slowly on foreclosures. The 1.89 million homes on the market at the end of December represented a 6% decline from November and a 22.3% decline from one year ago, according to data compiled by Realtor.com. Low inventories are an important ingredient for any housing recovery because prices could firm up in markets that have worked through their inventory. Still, some real-estate agents aren’t celebrating because there’s a large backlog of potential foreclosures that haven’t yet been taken back and listed by banks. The inventory declines are particularly pronounced in certain states where banks have sharply slowed down foreclosures to correct docume…